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期刊简介《和平研究杂志》(Journal of Peace Research)是一份关于全球冲突和维护和平的跨学科双月刊,由奥斯陆和平研究所负责。该期刊除了涉及和平相关的概念以外,还会关注暴力的根源以及冲突的解决方法。根据Journal C


《和平研究杂志》(Journal of Peace Research)是一份关于全球冲突和维护和平的跨学科双月刊,由奥斯陆和平研究所负责。该期刊除了涉及和平相关的概念以外,还会关注暴力的根源以及冲突的解决方法。根据Journal Citation Reports的数据,2021年该期刊的影响因子为4.054。


1. 新兴侨民:探析母国以外的动员

Emerging diasporas: Exploring mobilization outside the homeland

2. 叙利亚和伊拉克的外籍士兵背后是否存在政府和社会对穆斯林少数民族的歧视?

Is governmental and societal discrimination against Muslim minorities behind foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq?

3. 支持叛军和收容难民:解释国内冲突中难民流动的变化

Supporting rebels and hosting refugees: Explaining the variation in refugee flows in civil conflicts

4. 结束冲突中调节和维和的效果

The effectiveness of mediation and peacekeeping for ending conflict

5. 战争中的拒止与惩罚

Denial and punishment in war

6. 战斗人员的社会化和约束准则:美国军事学院和陆军预备役军官训练营的军官培训

Combatant socialization and norms of restraint: Examining officer training at the US Military Academy and Army ROTC

7. 潜在领土威胁和民主倒退

Latent territorial threat and democratic regime reversals

8. 内战后的干预与镇压

Interventions and repression following civil conflict

9. 选举支持和激进分子的袭击策略

Electoral support and militants’ targeting strategies

10. 多数代表制与比例代表制下的地方种族政治两极分化和选举暴力

Local ethno-political polarization and election violence in majoritarian vs. proportional systems

11. 暴力冲突导致的全球经济负担

The global economic burden of violent conflict

01 新兴侨民:探析母国以外的动员

题目:Emerging diasporas: Exploring mobilization outside the homeland

作者:Connor Kopchick,马里兰大学(University of Maryland,College Park)政府与政治系博士生;Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham,马里兰大学政府与政治系教授;Erin K Jenne,中欧大学(Central European University)国际关系系教授;Stephen Saideman,卡尔顿大学(Carleton University)帕特森国际事务学院帕特森国际事务主席。


An enormous number of people are leaving their homelands around the world today. This has happened several times in the past, but migration has spiked in recent years. These population movements can have significant effects on both the host country (where emigrants or refugees settle), as well as politics back in the homeland. After they leave their homelands, why do some groups mobilize, and in what ways? In this article, we examine a number of factors that may impact when emigrated groups mobilize after they move. We develop a new dataset on potential diasporas in the United States to evaluate a series of hypotheses, including those about motivations for mobilization such as identity maintenance, the objective plight of co-ethnics in the homeland, and group capacity to mobilize. We find some merit in the identity preservation argument and a strong effect of geographic concentration of the diaspora segment. Surprisingly, diaspora mobilization does not appear to be strongly related to conflict in the homeland among these groups.

02 叙利亚和伊拉克的外籍士兵背后是否存在政府和社会对穆斯林少数群体的歧视?

题目:Is governmental and societal discrimination against Muslim minorities behind foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq?

作者:Meirav Mishali-Ram,巴伊兰大学(Bar Ilan University)政治研究系讲师;Jonathan Fox,巴伊兰大学政治系胡达·阿夫纳(Yehuda Avner)宗教与政治教授。

摘要:本文旨在分析政府和社会对穆斯林少数群体的歧视是否可以解释外籍士兵从主流非穆斯林国家流出(outflow)到叙利亚和伊拉克的成因。通过使用来自ICSR、Soufan Group、Pokalova(2018)和RASM数据集的数据,本文探究针对穆斯林少数群体的歧视与来自一国的外籍士兵数量之间的联系。本文采用积怨理论(grievance-based theory)来分析该现象背后是否存在针对少数群体目标的歧视。本文发现,很少有证据表明歧视会增加外籍士兵的流出量,但此类流出的人数从富裕国家流出的人数更高。调查结果表明,如果积怨是个人成为外籍士兵的动机,则与客观歧视无关。这意味着,至少存在一些与个人原因相关的积怨,或者在较富裕国家的少数群体移民们更有可能感受到不平等。

This study asks whether governmental and societal discrimination against Muslim minorities explains the outflow of foreign fighters from non-Muslim-majority countries to Syria and Iraq. We use data from the ICSR, Soufan Group, Pokalova (2018), and RASM datasets to examine the connection between discrimination directed at Muslim minorities and the number of foreign fighters originating in a country. We apply grievance-based theory to examine whether minority-specific objective discrimination is behind the phenomenon. We find little evidence that discrimination increases the outflow of foreign fighters, but this outflow is higher from wealthier countries. The findings indicate that if grievances are a motivation for individuals to become foreign fighters, they are not connected to objective discrimination. This implies that at least some of the grievances relate to personal circumstances or that immigrant minorities are more likely to perceive inequality in wealthier countries.

03 支持叛军和收容难民:解释国内冲突中难民流动的变化

题目:Supporting rebels and hosting refugees: Explaining the variation in refugee flows in civil conflicts

作者:Oguzhan Turkoglu,柏林赫尔蒂行政学院(Hertie School)博士后研究员。


Why do some countries host more refugees than others? Previous research has focused on the role of geographical, political, and economic determinants, and little attention has been paid to civil conflict dynamics. In this article, I examine how a host country’s support for rebel groups may affect the number of refugees that it accommodates. Countries that support rebels host a higher number of refugees than others, as accommodating refugees can be the continuation of that support and help rebel groups in their armed struggle. By hosting people, countries may offer a sanctuary from which rebels can operate some of their insurgent activities. Rebel groups can exploit these camps for recruitment, training, and benefiting from the main services such as health care. In addition, when rebels operate in host countries, these countries may monitor, impact, or even direct the strategies of insurgent groups. Analysis of refugee flows between 1968 and 2011 suggests that countries which support rebel groups host twice as many refugees as others. Results are robust to various model specifications, two different sources for the main explanatory variable, matching analysis, and additional checks. Findings of this article highlight the importance of conflict dynamics in explaining the variation in refugee flows.

04 结束冲突中调解和维和的效果

题目:The effectiveness of mediation and peacekeeping for ending conflict

作者:Govinda Clayton,苏黎世联邦理工大学安全研究中心高级研究员,研究兴趣是冲突调解、对话、谈判和解决;Han Dorussen,埃塞克斯大学政府系教授,研究兴趣是冲突解决和应用博弈论。


Mediation and peacekeeping are commonly used tools to manage conflict. To what extent are they complementary and effective instruments for ending violent conflicts? Generally, they are seen as distinct tools: mediation aims to facilitate negotiated settlements, while the goal of peacekeeping is to prevent agreements from collapsing. However, peacekeeping and mediation regularly occur simultaneously. Arguably, peacekeeping operations rely on continuing political processes, while peacekeepers create a context favorable for mediation and provide a valuable source of independent information. Using a variety of model specifications, including selection models, empirical evidence supports that (a) mediation rather than peacekeeping is key to halting hostilities, (b) mediation and peacekeeping are largely complementary, but (c) this complementarity is conditional: in the post-Cold War period, transformative peacekeeping boosted the effectiveness of mediation to halt civil wars. There is no evidence that peacekeeping on its own matters for ending conflict. Finally, counterfactual analysis shows the substantial impact of mediation and peacekeeping on the frequency of conflict.

05 战争中的拒止与惩罚

题目:Denial and punishment in war

作者:Keisuke Nakao,夏威夷大学希洛分校商业与经济学院副教授,研究兴趣是国际政治、政治经济学和应用博弈论。


Formal models of war termination have been developed along two major approaches: in one, war is interpreted as a series of battles, where nations exchange denials that aim to destroy enemy forces; in the other, war is illustrated as a process of bargaining with mutual punishments that inflict costs on opponents. By integrating these two approaches, I build a dynamic model of war, where two nations choose between military force and civilian value as the targets of their attacks in every battle. The war proceeds along one of the following three paths in equilibrium. First, either nation immediately gives in to the other’s threat of punishment such as nuclear strikes. Second, both the nations continue to conduct counterforce denial campaigns to weaken each other until either side is fully disarmed (i.e. all-out war). Third, after significant military imbalance is generated by the exchange of denials in an early battle, the winner of the battle switches to a countervalue punishment campaign, to which the loser responds by capitulation (i.e. limited war). My equilibrium analyses suggest that while denials largely determine a war’s outcome, punishments can influence its duration. Unlike existing models, mine illuminates the two-way causal relationship, where past battle outcomes can influence the choice of military strategy, whereas military strategies also shape how the war will further evolve.

06 战斗人员的社会化和约束准则:美国军事学院和陆军预备役军官训练营的军官培训

题目:Combatant socialization and norms of restraint: Examining officer training at the US Military Academy and Army ROTC

作者:Andrew Bell,印第安纳大学布鲁明顿分校国际研究系助理教授。


通过对美国军事学院(USMA)、陆军预备役军官训练团(ROTC)和现役陆军战斗人员的调查和访谈,本文比较研究了战斗人员的社会化与约束规范,推动该领域的学术理解。为了从战斗人员的角度更好地理解“约束”,本研究引入了“战斗人员三难困境”(combatant’s trilemma)的概念,即战斗人员将平民保护概念作为代价高昂的军事优势和武力保护价值的一部分。


Can armed groups socialize combatants to norms of restraint – in essence, train soldiers to adopt norms of international humanitarian law on the battlefield? How can social scientists accurately measure such socialization? Despite being the central focus of organizational and ideational theories of conflict, studies to date have not engaged in systematic, survey-based examination of this central socialization mechanism theorized to influence military conduct.

This study advances scholarly understanding by providing the first comparative, survey-based examination of combatant socialization to norms of restraint, using surveys and interviews with US Army cadets at the US Military Academy (USMA), Army Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC), and active duty Army combatants. Additionally, to better understand ‘restraint’ from combatants’ perspective, this study introduces the concept of the ‘combatant’s trilemma’ under which combatants conceptualize civilian protection as part of a costly trade-off with the values of military advantage and force protection.

Survey results hold both positive and negative implications for socialization to law of war norms: military socialization can shift combatants’ preferences for battlefield conduct. However, intensive norm socialization may be required to shift combatants’ preferences from force protection to civilian protection norms. Study findings hold significant implications for understanding violence against civilians in conflict and for policies to disseminate civilian protection norms in armed groups worldwide.

07 潜在领土威胁和民主倒退

题目:Latent territorial threat and democratic regime reversals

作者:Johannes Karreth,尤西纽斯学院(Ursinus College)政治与国际关系系助理教授,研究兴趣是国际组织和冲突解决;Jaroslav Tir,科罗拉多大学博尔德分校政治系教授,研究兴趣是武装冲突的原因、结果、和管理;Douglas M Gibler是亚拉巴马大学政治学教授,研究兴趣是国际冲突的原因和结果以及国家发展。

摘要:为什么一些民主政权会倒退成非民主政权?作者提出了一种民主倒退的解释,强调外部边境关系对国内政治的影响。对一国领土潜在的威胁会促使行政当局的权力集中用以保卫国土。潜在领土威胁还会促使国家建立并维护庞大的军队与有威胁的邻国作战。将这些因素结合起来,潜在领土威胁会增加领导人的国内权势,削弱民主制度,创造其他威胁民主的条件,并最终导致民主倒退。结合现有的关于领土冲突的研究,作者运用贝叶斯估计(Bayesian Estimation),开发了一种量化且连续的衡量方法,囊括了1946到2016年间所有对民主国家的领土威胁。作者的实证检验考虑到了衡量方法的不确定性以及其他导致民主倒退的常见决定因素,同时还考察了一些民主倒退的个案,最后得出可靠的证据证明,在领土受到邻国高度威胁的国家,民主倒退的比例更高。本文的研究表明,对民主制发展的研究应该认识到,单单研究国内因素是不足以解释为什么民主制会失败的。

Why do some democracies revert to non-democratic forms of governance? We develop an explanation of democratic reversals that emphasizes the influence of states’ external border relations on domestic politics. Latent threats to a state’s territory encourage political centralization of authority in the executive to defend against danger to the homeland. Latent territorial threat also facilitates the construction and maintenance of large land armies to fight threatening neighbors. Combined, latent territorial threat increases leaders’ domestic power, weakens democratic institutions, encourages other conditions threatening democratic survival, and, ultimately, leads to democratic reversals. Synthesizing prior research on territorial conflict, we generate a quantitative, continuous measure of latent territorial threat against all democracies with contiguous neighbors from 1946 to 2016, using Bayesian estimation. Empirical tests accounting for measurement uncertainty and other common determinants of reversals as well as brief reviews of individual cases of reversal provide robust evidence that democracy failed at higher rates in countries facing high levels of threats to their territory from neighbors. Our study implies that a complete account of the development of democratic institutions should emphasize that domestic factors alone fall short of explaining why democracies fail.

08 内战后的干预与镇压

题目:Interventions and repression following civil conflict

作者:Naji Bsisu是马里维尔学院(Maryville College)政治学助理教授,研究兴趣是人权和难民问题;Amanda Murdie是佐治亚大学公共与国际事务学院教授,研究兴趣是国际非政府组织、人的安全、人权、冲突和发展。


Civil conflicts inevitably have negative consequences with regards to respect for human rights within affected states. Unfortunately, the violation of human rights often does not end with the conflict. What factors explain variation in state repression in post-civil conflict societies? Can international interventions, both civilian and military, improve human rights in states with a history of conflict? Does the size of the intervention matter? We argue that international interventions, including peacekeeping missions and officially directed foreign aid, can reduce physical integrity abuses. This process occurs by simultaneously increasing protections for civilians while also raising the costs of repression to both government leaders and their agents. Human rights abuses will also decrease when there are legal remedies available to vulnerable populations which are bolstered by a strong judicial system. A robust civil society can also discourage human rights abuses by shedding light on these events and providing human rights education. In line with our theoretical argument, we focus on UN peacekeeping missions, especially those with human rights teams, and officially directed foreign aid for legal and security sector reform and NGOs. Using both a treatment effects approach and a continuous dose–response model, we find much support for the implications of our argument.

09 选举支持和激进分子的袭击策略

题目:Electoral support and militants’ targeting strategies

作者:Deniz Aksoy,圣路易斯华盛顿大学政治科学系副教授;David Carlson,科希策技术大学国际关系系的助理教授。


Militant groups that are in armed conflict with a government often coexist with political parties that have ethnic or ideological connections to them. In this article, we explore the extent to which electoral support received by militant associated opposition parties and nationally incumbent political parties influences subnational variation in militant attacks. We argue, and empirically demonstrate, that militants strategically target localities where the levels of electoral support for the opposition party and the nationally incumbent party are close in an effort to negatively influence the electoral performance of the incumbent party. To illustrate this dynamic we examine subnational data from 1995 to 2015 Turkish legislative elections and attacks organized by the Kurdish militants within the same time period. We also examine the impact of June 2015 legislative elections on militant attacks until the snap elections in November 2015. Our empirical examination shows that militants target localities where electoral support for the governing party and Kurdish opposition party is close. Moreover, increase in violence negatively influences the electoral performance of the governing party. However, it does not consistently have a significant influence on the opposition. The findings illustrate that militants strategically choose the location of their attacks based on electoral dynamics, and attacks can pose an electoral challenge to the governing party.

10 多数代表制与比例代表制下的地方种族政治两极分化和选举暴力

题目:Local ethno-political polarization and election violence in majoritarian vs. proportional systems

作者:Carl Müller-Crepon,牛津大学政治与国际关系系讲师。


How does local ethnic demography affect the conduct of majoritarian elections? Because legislative elections in majoritarian systems are contested locally, local ethno-political polarization increases the risk of pre-election violence. In districts that are polarized between politically competing ethnic groups, violence can be targeted with comparative ease at opposing voters, and can, if perpetrated collectively, mobilize the perpetrators’ co-ethnics. I do not expect such dynamics in PR systems where political competition plays out at higher geographical levels. To test this argument, I combine new data on the ethnic composition of local populations in 22 African countries with monthly data on riots and survey data on campaign violence. Ethno-politically polarized districts in majoritarian and mixed electoral systems see substantively larger increases in the number of riots prior to legislative elections and more fear of pre-election violence among citizens than non-polarized districts in the same country and at the same time. I do not find these patterns in PR systems. The results enhance our understanding of how electoral systems interact with local ethnic demography in shaping pre-election violence.

11 暴力冲突导致的全球经济负担

题目:The global economic burden of violent conflict

作者:Olaf J de Groot,联合国牙买加、巴哈马、百慕大、特克斯和凯科斯群岛和开曼群岛驻地协调员办公室经济学家;Carlos Bozzoli,阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯基金会经济学家;Anousheh Alamir,欧洲经济与统计高级研究中心(ECARES)博士研究生;Tilman Brück,格林尼治大学自然资源研究所、国际安全与发展中心、莱布尼茨蔬菜和观赏作物研究所教授。


Calculating the consequences of global public bads such as climate change or pandemics helps uncover the scale, distribution and structure of their economic burdens. As violent conflict affects billions of people worldwide, whether directly or indirectly, this article sets out to estimate its global macro-economic repercussions. Using a novel methodology that accounts for multiple dimensions of war, the article finds that, in the absence of violent conflict since 1970, the level of global GDP in 2014 would have been, on average, 12% higher. When disaggregating these results by conflict type, civil conflicts are estimated to have been the costliest by far. Income growth is found to be altered up to four years following the end of a conflict, although the direction of this relationship depends on the intensity and type of conflict. Countries also suffer significantly from fighting in neighbouring countries, thereby showing the importance of mitigating spillovers rapidly. The largest absolute losses associated with violence emanate from Asia, while many high-income economies are found to benefit economically from participating in conflicts on foreign soil. This analysis thus shows that, despite some evidence of a faster post-conflict growth and possible benefits for external participants, violent conflict leads to net global losses that linger long after peace is achieved, reducing the peace dividend. The article concludes by discussing public policy options to strengthen the benefits of peace as a global public good.

编译 | 林怡娉 徐一凡 李 思

审校 | 徐一君

排版 | 汪平平




















新华社联合国9月6日电 中国常驻联合国副代表戴兵6日在和平文化高级别论坛全会上发言,强调建设和平应尊重国家主权。戴兵说,此次和平文化高级别论坛以建设和平为主题,在当前国际形势下具有重要现实意义。中方愿分享以下三点看法:一是尊重国家主权,坚持




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