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期刊简介

《和平研究杂志》（Journal of Peace Research）是一份关于全球冲突和维护和平的跨学科双月刊，由奥斯陆和平研究所负责。该期刊除了涉及和平相关的概念以外，还会关注暴力的根源以及冲突的解决方法。根据Journal Citation Reports的数据，2021年该期刊的影响因子为4.054。

本期目录

1. 新兴侨民：探析母国以外的动员

Emerging diasporas: Exploring mobilization outside the homeland

2. 叙利亚和伊拉克的外籍士兵背后是否存在政府和社会对穆斯林少数民族的歧视？

Is governmental and societal discrimination against Muslim minorities behind foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq?

3. 支持叛军和收容难民：解释国内冲突中难民流动的变化

Supporting rebels and hosting refugees: Explaining the variation in refugee flows in civil conflicts

4. 结束冲突中调节和维和的效果

The effectiveness of mediation and peacekeeping for ending conflict

5. 战争中的拒止与惩罚

Denial and punishment in war

6. 战斗人员的社会化和约束准则：美国军事学院和陆军预备役军官训练营的军官培训

Combatant socialization and norms of restraint: Examining officer training at the US Military Academy and Army ROTC

7. 潜在领土威胁和民主倒退

Latent territorial threat and democratic regime reversals

8. 内战后的干预与镇压

Interventions and repression following civil conflict

9. 选举支持和激进分子的袭击策略

Electoral support and militants’ targeting strategies

10. 多数代表制与比例代表制下的地方种族政治两极分化和选举暴力

Local ethno-political polarization and election violence in majoritarian vs. proportional systems

11. 暴力冲突导致的全球经济负担

The global economic burden of violent conflict

01 新兴侨民：探析母国以外的动员

题目：Emerging diasporas: Exploring mobilization outside the homeland

作者：Connor Kopchick，马里兰大学（University of Maryland，College Park）政府与政治系博士生；Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham，马里兰大学政府与政治系教授；Erin K Jenne，中欧大学（Central European University）国际关系系教授；Stephen Saideman，卡尔顿大学（Carleton University）帕特森国际事务学院帕特森国际事务主席。

摘要：当今，世界各地有大量的人离开他们的祖国。尽管过去时有发生，但移民数量却在近几年呈现出飙升的趋势。这些人口流动可能对接收国（移民或难民定居处）及其母国的政治产生显著的影响。在离开母国后，为什么一些群体被动员，又以什么方式被动员？本文分析了一些可能影响移民群体在离开母国后被动员的因素。本文创建了一个针对美国潜在侨民的新数据集，以评估一系列假设，包括动员动机（如身份维持）、身处母国的同族人面临的客观困境和群体动员的能力。本文发现身份维持这一论点较为有力，以及侨民的地理性聚集也具有很强的说服性。令人惊讶的是，侨民的动员似乎与这些群体在母国的冲突没有密切联系。

An enormous number of people are leaving their homelands around the world today. This has happened several times in the past, but migration has spiked in recent years. These population movements can have significant effects on both the host country （where emigrants or refugees settle）, as well as politics back in the homeland. After they leave their homelands, why do some groups mobilize, and in what ways? In this article, we examine a number of factors that may impact when emigrated groups mobilize after they move. We develop a new dataset on potential diasporas in the United States to evaluate a series of hypotheses, including those about motivations for mobilization such as identity maintenance, the objective plight of co-ethnics in the homeland, and group capacity to mobilize. We find some merit in the identity preservation argument and a strong effect of geographic concentration of the diaspora segment. Surprisingly, diaspora mobilization does not appear to be strongly related to conflict in the homeland among these groups.

02 叙利亚和伊拉克的外籍士兵背后是否存在政府和社会对穆斯林少数群体的歧视？

题目：Is governmental and societal discrimination against Muslim minorities behind foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq?

作者：Meirav Mishali-Ram，巴伊兰大学（Bar Ilan University）政治研究系讲师；Jonathan Fox，巴伊兰大学政治系胡达·阿夫纳（Yehuda Avner）宗教与政治教授。

摘要：本文旨在分析政府和社会对穆斯林少数群体的歧视是否可以解释外籍士兵从主流非穆斯林国家流出（outflow）到叙利亚和伊拉克的成因。通过使用来自ICSR、Soufan Group、Pokalova（2018）和RASM数据集的数据，本文探究针对穆斯林少数群体的歧视与来自一国的外籍士兵数量之间的联系。本文采用积怨理论（grievance-based theory）来分析该现象背后是否存在针对少数群体目标的歧视。本文发现，很少有证据表明歧视会增加外籍士兵的流出量，但此类流出的人数从富裕国家流出的人数更高。调查结果表明，如果积怨是个人成为外籍士兵的动机，则与客观歧视无关。这意味着，至少存在一些与个人原因相关的积怨，或者在较富裕国家的少数群体移民们更有可能感受到不平等。

This study asks whether governmental and societal discrimination against Muslim minorities explains the outflow of foreign fighters from non-Muslim-majority countries to Syria and Iraq. We use data from the ICSR, Soufan Group, Pokalova (2018）, and RASM datasets to examine the connection between discrimination directed at Muslim minorities and the number of foreign fighters originating in a country. We apply grievance-based theory to examine whether minority-specific objective discrimination is behind the phenomenon. We find little evidence that discrimination increases the outflow of foreign fighters, but this outflow is higher from wealthier countries. The findings indicate that if grievances are a motivation for individuals to become foreign fighters, they are not connected to objective discrimination. This implies that at least some of the grievances relate to personal circumstances or that immigrant minorities are more likely to perceive inequality in wealthier countries.

03 支持叛军和收容难民：解释国内冲突中难民流动的变化

题目：Supporting rebels and hosting refugees: Explaining the variation in refugee flows in civil conflicts

作者：Oguzhan Turkoglu，柏林赫尔蒂行政学院（Hertie School）博士后研究员。

摘要：为什么一些国家比其他国家收容了更多难民？既有研究集中于地理、政治和经济因素的影响，而鲜少关注到国内冲突动态。本文研究了国家对叛军团体的支持是如何影响其容纳难民的数量的。由于收容难民可以维持对叛乱团体的支持并助长其武装斗争，因此支持叛军的国家比其他国家收容了更多难民。通过收容难民，国家可以为叛军提供庇护所，使他们得以开展一些叛乱活动。叛军能够利用这些庇护所进行招募和训练成员，并且获取诸如医疗之类的服务。此外，当叛军在其支持国内部活动时，国家可能监视、影响或甚至直接指导叛军团体的策略。针对1968-2011年难民潮的分析显示，叛军的支持国收容的难民数量是其他国家的两倍。不论从模型设定、主要解释变量的来源、匹配分析还是其他检验来看，该结论都具有较强的说服力。本文的研究结果突出了冲突动态在解释难民流动变化方面的重要性。

Why do some countries host more refugees than others? Previous research has focused on the role of geographical, political, and economic determinants, and little attention has been paid to civil conflict dynamics. In this article, I examine how a host country’s support for rebel groups may affect the number of refugees that it accommodates. Countries that support rebels host a higher number of refugees than others, as accommodating refugees can be the continuation of that support and help rebel groups in their armed struggle. By hosting people, countries may offer a sanctuary from which rebels can operate some of their insurgent activities. Rebel groups can exploit these camps for recruitment, training, and benefiting from the main services such as health care. In addition, when rebels operate in host countries, these countries may monitor, impact, or even direct the strategies of insurgent groups. Analysis of refugee flows between 1968 and 2011 suggests that countries which support rebel groups host twice as many refugees as others. Results are robust to various model specifications, two different sources for the main explanatory variable, matching analysis, and additional checks. Findings of this article highlight the importance of conflict dynamics in explaining the variation in refugee flows.

04 结束冲突中调解和维和的效果

题目：The effectiveness of mediation and peacekeeping for ending conflict

作者：Govinda Clayton，苏黎世联邦理工大学安全研究中心高级研究员，研究兴趣是冲突调解、对话、谈判和解决；Han Dorussen，埃塞克斯大学政府系教授，研究兴趣是冲突解决和应用博弈论。

摘要：调解和维和是管理冲突的常用手段，但这两者在多大程度上是结束暴力冲突互补且有效的工具？一般而言，这两者是不同的工具：调解的目的是促成谈判解决，而维和的目的则是防止协议破裂。然而，维和和调解通常同时发生。维和行动依赖于持续的政治进程，而维和人员则创造有利于调解的环境，并提供有价值的独立信息。本文的实证研究运用包括选择模型在内的多种模型，发现（1）调解而非维和是制止敌对行动的关键，（2）调节和维和基本上是互补的，（3）但这一互补性是有条件的：在后冷战时期，转换性的（transformative）维和能够大大提升调解对制止内战的效果。没有证据表明单凭维和就能够结束冲突。最后，反事实分析表明调节和维和对冲突的频率有显著影响。

Mediation and peacekeeping are commonly used tools to manage conflict. To what extent are they complementary and effective instruments for ending violent conflicts? Generally, they are seen as distinct tools: mediation aims to facilitate negotiated settlements, while the goal of peacekeeping is to prevent agreements from collapsing. However, peacekeeping and mediation regularly occur simultaneously. Arguably, peacekeeping operations rely on continuing political processes, while peacekeepers create a context favorable for mediation and provide a valuable source of independent information. Using a variety of model specifications, including selection models, empirical evidence supports that （a） mediation rather than peacekeeping is key to halting hostilities, （b） mediation and peacekeeping are largely complementary, but （c） this complementarity is conditional: in the post-Cold War period, transformative peacekeeping boosted the effectiveness of mediation to halt civil wars. There is no evidence that peacekeeping on its own matters for ending conflict. Finally, counterfactual analysis shows the substantial impact of mediation and peacekeeping on the frequency of conflict.

05 战争中的拒止与惩罚

题目：Denial and punishment in war

作者：Keisuke Nakao，夏威夷大学希洛分校商业与经济学院副教授，研究兴趣是国际政治、政治经济学和应用博弈论。

摘要：关于战争结束的形式模型主要由两种路径发展而来：一种路径将战争理解为国家在一系列战斗中相互拒止并摧毁对方军队；另一种路径则将战争视为是讨价还价的过程，旨在使对手付出代价。通过整合这两种方法，作者建立了一个战争的动态模型，在每一场战争中，两个国家都将选择进攻军用还是民用目标。战争沿着以下三条路径中的一条均衡地进行。第一，任一国家立刻屈服于对方的惩罚威胁，比如核打击。第二，两国持续进行对敌拒止战役，削弱对方军事实力，直到一方完全被解除武装，即全面战争。第三，在初期的拒止交战导致显著的军事不对称后，战场上的获胜方转而进行针对民用目标的惩罚攻势以逼迫战败一方投降，即有限战争。作者的均衡分析表明，拒止在很大程度上能决定战争的结果，但惩罚可以影响战争的持续时间。不同于其他现有模型，作者的模型阐明了一种双向因果关系，其中战斗结果会影响军事战略的选择，而军事战略又会影响战争行进的方向。

Formal models of war termination have been developed along two major approaches: in one, war is interpreted as a series of battles, where nations exchange denials that aim to destroy enemy forces; in the other, war is illustrated as a process of bargaining with mutual punishments that inflict costs on opponents. By integrating these two approaches, I build a dynamic model of war, where two nations choose between military force and civilian value as the targets of their attacks in every battle. The war proceeds along one of the following three paths in equilibrium. First, either nation immediately gives in to the other’s threat of punishment such as nuclear strikes. Second, both the nations continue to conduct counterforce denial campaigns to weaken each other until either side is fully disarmed （i.e. all-out war）. Third, after significant military imbalance is generated by the exchange of denials in an early battle, the winner of the battle switches to a countervalue punishment campaign, to which the loser responds by capitulation （i.e. limited war）. My equilibrium analyses suggest that while denials largely determine a war’s outcome, punishments can influence its duration. Unlike existing models, mine illuminates the two-way causal relationship, where past battle outcomes can influence the choice of military strategy, whereas military strategies also shape how the war will further evolve.

06 战斗人员的社会化和约束准则：美国军事学院和陆军预备役军官训练营的军官培训

题目：Combatant socialization and norms of restraint: Examining officer training at the US Military Academy and Army ROTC

作者：Andrew Bell，印第安纳大学布鲁明顿分校国际研究系助理教授。

摘要：武装组织能否使战斗人员适应约束准则，即是否能训练士兵在战场上遵守国际人道主义法准则？社会科学家如何才能准确地衡量这种社会化？尽管这是冲突组织和概念理论的中心焦点，但迄今为止的研究还没有对这种影响军事行为的中央社会化机制进行系统的、基于调查的检验。

通过对美国军事学院（USMA）、陆军预备役军官训练团（ROTC）和现役陆军战斗人员的调查和访谈，本文比较研究了战斗人员的社会化与约束规范，推动该领域的学术理解。为了从战斗人员的角度更好地理解“约束”，本研究引入了“战斗人员三难困境”（combatant’s trilemma）的概念，即战斗人员将平民保护概念作为代价高昂的军事优势和武力保护价值的一部分。

研究结果对战争规范的社会化同时具有积极和消极的影响：军事社会化可以改变战斗人员对战场行为的偏好。然而，为了使战斗人员从偏向部队保护转为偏向平民保护，仍需进一步加强规范的社会化。研究结果对理解冲突中针对平民的暴力行为和传播世界各地武装团体保护平民准则的政策具有重大意义。

Can armed groups socialize combatants to norms of restraint – in essence, train soldiers to adopt norms of international humanitarian law on the battlefield? How can social scientists accurately measure such socialization? Despite being the central focus of organizational and ideational theories of conflict, studies to date have not engaged in systematic, survey-based examination of this central socialization mechanism theorized to influence military conduct.

This study advances scholarly understanding by providing the first comparative, survey-based examination of combatant socialization to norms of restraint, using surveys and interviews with US Army cadets at the US Military Academy （USMA）, Army Reserve Officer Training Corps （ROTC）, and active duty Army combatants. Additionally, to better understand ‘restraint’ from combatants’ perspective, this study introduces the concept of the ‘combatant’s trilemma’ under which combatants conceptualize civilian protection as part of a costly trade-off with the values of military advantage and force protection.

Survey results hold both positive and negative implications for socialization to law of war norms: military socialization can shift combatants’ preferences for battlefield conduct. However, intensive norm socialization may be required to shift combatants’ preferences from force protection to civilian protection norms. Study findings hold significant implications for understanding violence against civilians in conflict and for policies to disseminate civilian protection norms in armed groups worldwide.

07 潜在领土威胁和民主倒退

题目：Latent territorial threat and democratic regime reversals

作者：Johannes Karreth，尤西纽斯学院（Ursinus College）政治与国际关系系助理教授，研究兴趣是国际组织和冲突解决；Jaroslav Tir，科罗拉多大学博尔德分校政治系教授，研究兴趣是武装冲突的原因、结果、和管理；Douglas M Gibler是亚拉巴马大学政治学教授，研究兴趣是国际冲突的原因和结果以及国家发展。

摘要：为什么一些民主政权会倒退成非民主政权？作者提出了一种民主倒退的解释，强调外部边境关系对国内政治的影响。对一国领土潜在的威胁会促使行政当局的权力集中用以保卫国土。潜在领土威胁还会促使国家建立并维护庞大的军队与有威胁的邻国作战。将这些因素结合起来，潜在领土威胁会增加领导人的国内权势，削弱民主制度，创造其他威胁民主的条件，并最终导致民主倒退。结合现有的关于领土冲突的研究，作者运用贝叶斯估计（Bayesian Estimation），开发了一种量化且连续的衡量方法，囊括了1946到2016年间所有对民主国家的领土威胁。作者的实证检验考虑到了衡量方法的不确定性以及其他导致民主倒退的常见决定因素，同时还考察了一些民主倒退的个案，最后得出可靠的证据证明，在领土受到邻国高度威胁的国家，民主倒退的比例更高。本文的研究表明，对民主制发展的研究应该认识到，单单研究国内因素是不足以解释为什么民主制会失败的。

Why do some democracies revert to non-democratic forms of governance? We develop an explanation of democratic reversals that emphasizes the influence of states’ external border relations on domestic politics. Latent threats to a state’s territory encourage political centralization of authority in the executive to defend against danger to the homeland. Latent territorial threat also facilitates the construction and maintenance of large land armies to fight threatening neighbors. Combined, latent territorial threat increases leaders’ domestic power, weakens democratic institutions, encourages other conditions threatening democratic survival, and, ultimately, leads to democratic reversals. Synthesizing prior research on territorial conflict, we generate a quantitative, continuous measure of latent territorial threat against all democracies with contiguous neighbors from 1946 to 2016, using Bayesian estimation. Empirical tests accounting for measurement uncertainty and other common determinants of reversals as well as brief reviews of individual cases of reversal provide robust evidence that democracy failed at higher rates in countries facing high levels of threats to their territory from neighbors. Our study implies that a complete account of the development of democratic institutions should emphasize that domestic factors alone fall short of explaining why democracies fail.

08 内战后的干预与镇压

题目：Interventions and repression following civil conflict

作者：Naji Bsisu是马里维尔学院（Maryville College）政治学助理教授，研究兴趣是人权和难民问题；Amanda Murdie是佐治亚大学公共与国际事务学院教授，研究兴趣是国际非政府组织、人的安全、人权、冲突和发展。

摘要：内战会不可避免地给本国人权带来负面影响。不幸的是，对人权的侵犯并不会随着内战的结束而结束。哪些因素可以解释各国内战后在镇压上的差异？在有冲突历史的国家，国际民事和军事干预能否提高该国的人权水平？干预的规模是否重要？作者认为，包括维和行动和官方指导下的外国援助的国际干预可以减少对人权的侵犯。在干预过程中，在平民能更好的得到保护的同时，政府领导人和各级机关的镇压成本也会增加。如果弱势群体能够获得法律救助，并得到强有力的司法制度的支持，侵犯人权的行为也将减少。健全的公民社会还可以通过揭露侵犯人权事件和提供人权教育来阻止侵犯人权的行为。为证明作者的理论，本文关注于特别是有人权团队的联合国维和行动，以及在官方指导下为法律和安全部门改革和非政府组织提供帮助的外国援助。运用处理效果方法和连续剂量反应模型，作者发现了大量支持作者论点的证据。

Civil conflicts inevitably have negative consequences with regards to respect for human rights within affected states. Unfortunately, the violation of human rights often does not end with the conflict. What factors explain variation in state repression in post-civil conflict societies? Can international interventions, both civilian and military, improve human rights in states with a history of conflict? Does the size of the intervention matter? We argue that international interventions, including peacekeeping missions and officially directed foreign aid, can reduce physical integrity abuses. This process occurs by simultaneously increasing protections for civilians while also raising the costs of repression to both government leaders and their agents. Human rights abuses will also decrease when there are legal remedies available to vulnerable populations which are bolstered by a strong judicial system. A robust civil society can also discourage human rights abuses by shedding light on these events and providing human rights education. In line with our theoretical argument, we focus on UN peacekeeping missions, especially those with human rights teams, and officially directed foreign aid for legal and security sector reform and NGOs. Using both a treatment effects approach and a continuous dose–response model, we find much support for the implications of our argument.

09 选举支持和激进分子的袭击策略

题目：Electoral support and militants’ targeting strategies

作者：Deniz Aksoy，圣路易斯华盛顿大学政治科学系副教授；David Carlson，科希策技术大学国际关系系的助理教授。

摘要：与政府发生武装冲突的激进组织往往和与他们有种族或意识形态联系的政党共存。在这篇文章中，我们探讨了与激进分子有关的反对党和执政党所获的选举支持在多大程度上影响地方性武装行动的差异。本文主张且通过实证证明：激进分子的战略目标是反对党和执政党的选举支持率接近的地区，目的是对执政党的选举表现造成负面影响。为了阐述这一动态，本文研究了1995年至2015年期间土耳其议会选举和库尔德激进分子组织袭击的数据。本文还研究了2015年6月的立法选举对激进分子袭击的影响，该影响一直延续到2015年11月的临时选举前。我们的实证研究表明，激进分子袭击的是执政党和库尔德反对党支持率接近的地方。而且，暴力的增加对执政党的选举表现产生了不利影响。然而，它并没有对反对党产生持续重大影响。研究表明，激进分子会战略性地根据选举动态选择袭击地点，而袭击可能对执政党的选情构成挑战。

Militant groups that are in armed conflict with a government often coexist with political parties that have ethnic or ideological connections to them. In this article, we explore the extent to which electoral support received by militant associated opposition parties and nationally incumbent political parties influences subnational variation in militant attacks. We argue, and empirically demonstrate, that militants strategically target localities where the levels of electoral support for the opposition party and the nationally incumbent party are close in an effort to negatively influence the electoral performance of the incumbent party. To illustrate this dynamic we examine subnational data from 1995 to 2015 Turkish legislative elections and attacks organized by the Kurdish militants within the same time period. We also examine the impact of June 2015 legislative elections on militant attacks until the snap elections in November 2015. Our empirical examination shows that militants target localities where electoral support for the governing party and Kurdish opposition party is close. Moreover, increase in violence negatively influences the electoral performance of the governing party. However, it does not consistently have a significant influence on the opposition. The findings illustrate that militants strategically choose the location of their attacks based on electoral dynamics, and attacks can pose an electoral challenge to the governing party.

10 多数代表制与比例代表制下的地方种族政治两极分化和选举暴力

题目：Local ethno-political polarization and election violence in majoritarian vs. proportional systems

作者：Carl Müller-Crepon，牛津大学政治与国际关系系讲师。

摘要：地方少数民族人口如何影响多数代表制选举的进行?由于多数代表制度下的立法选举存在地方性竞争，地方种族政治的两极分化增加了选举前发生暴力的风险。在族裔群体政治竞争呈两极分化的地区，暴力很容易针对对立的选民发生，且能在升级为集体性行为时，甚至煽动施暴者的同族裔人群在政治竞争处于更高地理层次上的比例代表制下，我不认为会出现这种情况。为了验证这一论点，我结合研究了22个非洲国家当地人口种族构成的新数据以及月度暴动和竞选暴力的调查数据。在实行多数代表制和混合选举制的种族政治两极化地区，其立法选举前的暴动数量明显更多，且公民对选举前暴力的恐惧也比同一国家的非两极化地区更大，而这却并不见于实行比例代表制的地区中。这一结论增强了我们对选举系统如何与当地种族人口相互影响并导致选举前暴力的理解。

How does local ethnic demography affect the conduct of majoritarian elections? Because legislative elections in majoritarian systems are contested locally, local ethno-political polarization increases the risk of pre-election violence. In districts that are polarized between politically competing ethnic groups, violence can be targeted with comparative ease at opposing voters, and can, if perpetrated collectively, mobilize the perpetrators’ co-ethnics. I do not expect such dynamics in PR systems where political competition plays out at higher geographical levels. To test this argument, I combine new data on the ethnic composition of local populations in 22 African countries with monthly data on riots and survey data on campaign violence. Ethno-politically polarized districts in majoritarian and mixed electoral systems see substantively larger increases in the number of riots prior to legislative elections and more fear of pre-election violence among citizens than non-polarized districts in the same country and at the same time. I do not find these patterns in PR systems. The results enhance our understanding of how electoral systems interact with local ethnic demography in shaping pre-election violence.

11 暴力冲突导致的全球经济负担

题目：The global economic burden of violent conflict

作者：Olaf J de Groot，联合国牙买加、巴哈马、百慕大、特克斯和凯科斯群岛和开曼群岛驻地协调员办公室经济学家；Carlos Bozzoli，阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯基金会经济学家；Anousheh Alamir，欧洲经济与统计高级研究中心（ECARES）博士研究生；Tilman Brück，格林尼治大学自然资源研究所、国际安全与发展中心、莱布尼茨蔬菜和观赏作物研究所教授。

摘要：统计对诸如气候变化或流行病等全球公共灾难后果的统计有助于揭示其带来经济负担的规模、分布和结构。由于暴力冲突直接或间接地影响着全球数十亿人，本文旨在估计其对全球宏观经济的影响。通过采纳考虑战争多个维度的创新性研究方法，本文认为，假设自1970年以来没有发生过暴力冲突，那么2014年的全球GDP将平均高出12%。若按冲突类型分开解析这一结论，迄今为止代价最大的估计是国内冲突。本文发现，在冲突结束后长达四年的时间里，收入增长有发生变化，尽管这一变化取决于冲突的强度和类型。与邻国间的冲突也对各国造成重大影响，这继而表明了迅速遏制冲突升级的重要性。亚洲蒙受了暴力带来的最大绝对损失，但许多高收入经济体则从参与外国领土冲突中获得经济利益。因此，这一分析表明，尽管有证据表明冲突后经济增长更快，外部参与者可能受益，但暴力冲突导致的全球净损失在恢复和平后依然长期存在，这削弱了和平红利。本文最后讨论了强化和平这一全球公共产品好处的公共政策选项。

Calculating the consequences of global public bads such as climate change or pandemics helps uncover the scale, distribution and structure of their economic burdens. As violent conflict affects billions of people worldwide, whether directly or indirectly, this article sets out to estimate its global macro-economic repercussions. Using a novel methodology that accounts for multiple dimensions of war, the article finds that, in the absence of violent conflict since 1970, the level of global GDP in 2014 would have been, on average, 12% higher. When disaggregating these results by conflict type, civil conflicts are estimated to have been the costliest by far. Income growth is found to be altered up to four years following the end of a conflict, although the direction of this relationship depends on the intensity and type of conflict. Countries also suffer significantly from fighting in neighbouring countries, thereby showing the importance of mitigating spillovers rapidly. The largest absolute losses associated with violence emanate from Asia, while many high-income economies are found to benefit economically from participating in conflicts on foreign soil. This analysis thus shows that, despite some evidence of a faster post-conflict growth and possible benefits for external participants, violent conflict leads to net global losses that linger long after peace is achieved, reducing the peace dividend. The article concludes by discussing public policy options to strengthen the benefits of peace as a global public good.

编译 | 林怡娉 徐一凡 李 思

审校 | 徐一君

排版 | 汪平平

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